Author: Otaviano Canuto
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Otaviano Canuto, based in Washington, D.C, is a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution, a professor affiliate at UM6P, a professorial lecturer of international affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs – George Washington University, and principal at Center for Macroeconomics and Development. He is a former vice-president and a former executive director at the World Bank, a former executive director at the International Monetary Fund and a former vice-president at the Inter-American Development Bank. He is also a former deputy minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and a former professor of economics at University of São Paulo and University of Campinas, Brazil. Otaviano has been a regular columnist for CFI.co for the past 10 years.
Otaviano Canuto: The Global War of Subsidies
US bids to limit tech imports and exports send a message of frustration and fear. Prior to her visit to China on April 4 — her second in nine months — Janet Yellen, US Secretary of the Treasury, sent a
Read MoreHow Will Artificial Intelligence Affect the Economy?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the name given to the broad spectrum of technologies by which machines can perceive, interpret, learn, and act by imitating human cognitive abilities. Automation was created to better fulfill repetitive tasks, increasing productivity. AI, with its
Read MoreWhither China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by Xi Jinping, passed its tenth anniversary in 2023. It has entered a third phase. The initiative added a label to China’s financing and construction of infrastructure abroad, which had already totaled more
Read MoreOtaviano Canuto: Growth Implications from a Fractured Trading System
To understand the implications of a fractured trading system, let’s use the period known as hyper-globalisation, or globalisation 2.0, as a benchmark. In the 1980s and ‘90s, we saw the consequences of a tectonic shift deep beneath the global economy.
Read MoreOtaviano Canuto: Rising Use of Local Currencies for Cross-Border Payments
At the recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa said they wanted to use more of their national currencies for cross-border payments. Those payments are currently dominated by the US dollar and
Read MoreOtaviano Canuto: The Dollar’s ‘Exorbitant Privilege’ Remains
Otaviano Canuto discusses the ongoing role of the greenback in international monetary systems… There has been talk of “de-dolarisation” of the global economy, with recent initiatives and policy moves by China and other countries to extend the reach of use
Read MoreOtaviano Canuto: Macro-economic Policy Change – We’re Not in Kansas Any More
The possibility of multiple financial shocks lies ahead. Three significant changes to the macro-economic policy regime in advanced economies have unfolded in the past two years. Fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent — which
Read MoreOtaviano Canuto: Going Around the Bend? Assessing the Phillips Curve May Be of Help
Unemployment and wage rates are theoretically linked, and may hold a key to our immediate economic future. Current global stagflation may evolve to become a soft landing, a sharp downturn, or a deep recession. It will all depend on how
Read MoreDollar Dominance: Greenback Will Endure Current Hardships
Financial sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine sparked speculation that the weaponisation of access to reserves in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen would spark a division in the international monetary order. China would strengthen its international payments system
Read MoreTightening Financial Conditions Bring Impacts to Asset Values
In the first half of this year, US stock markets suffered a fall not seen in more than 50 years. The S&P 500 index on Thursday June 30 was more than 20 percent down compared to January, a drop not
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