Author: Otaviano Canuto

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Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto, based in Washington, D.C, is a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution, a professor affiliate at UM6P, a professorial lecturer of international affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs – George Washington University, and principal at Center for Macroeconomics and Development. He is a former vice-president and a former executive director at the World Bank, a former executive director at the International Monetary Fund and a former vice-president at the Inter-American Development Bank. He is also a former deputy minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and a former professor of economics at University of São Paulo and University of Campinas, Brazil. Otaviano has been a regular columnist for CFI.co for the past 10 years.

Whither China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by Xi Jinping, passed its tenth anniversary in 2023. It has entered a third phase. The initiative added a label to China’s financing and construction of infrastructure abroad, which had already totaled more

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Otaviano Canuto: Growth Implications from a Fractured Trading System

To understand the implications of a fractured trading system, let’s use the period known as hyper-globalisation, or globalisation 2.0, as a benchmark. In the 1980s and ‘90s, we saw the consequences of a tectonic shift deep beneath the global economy.

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Otaviano Canuto: Rising Use of Local Currencies for Cross-Border Payments

At the recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa said they wanted to use more of their national currencies for cross-border payments. Those payments are currently dominated by the US dollar and

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Otaviano Canuto: The Dollar’s ‘Exorbitant Privilege’ Remains

Otaviano Canuto discusses the ongoing role of the greenback in international monetary systems… There has been talk of “de-dolarisation” of the global economy, with recent initiatives and policy moves by China and other countries to extend the reach of use

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Otaviano Canuto: Macro-economic Policy Change – We’re Not in Kansas Any More

The possibility of multiple financial shocks lies ahead. Three significant changes to the macro-economic policy regime in advanced economies have unfolded in the past two years. Fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent — which

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Otaviano Canuto: Going Around the Bend? Assessing the Phillips Curve May Be of Help

Unemployment and wage rates are theoretically linked, and may hold a key to our immediate economic future. Current global stagflation may evolve to become a soft landing, a sharp downturn, or a deep recession. It will all depend on how

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Dollar Dominance: Greenback Will Endure Current Hardships

Financial sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine sparked speculation that the weaponisation of access to reserves in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen would spark a division in the international monetary order. China would strengthen its international payments system

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Tightening Financial Conditions Bring Impacts to Asset Values

In the first half of this year, US stock markets suffered a fall not seen in more than 50 years. The S&P 500 index on Thursday June 30 was more than 20 percent down compared to January, a drop not

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Quantitative Tightening and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

In its May 15th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lifted its benchmark policy rate by 0.75% to 1.50%–1.75%, the most significant increase since 1994. The central bank also signaled an additional increase

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Greenbacks for a Green Future: It’s the Cost of Decarbonisation

Accelerating the transition toward low- or zero-carbon emissions is necessary to keep global warming at theoretically safe levels. That will probably bring price shocks associated with rising metal prices, energy costs, and carbon taxes — what has been called “greenflation”.

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