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Otaviano Canuto: Macro-economic Policy Change – We’re Not in Kansas Any More
The possibility of multiple financial shocks lies ahead. Three significant changes to the macro-economic policy regime in advanced economies have unfolded in the past two years. Fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent — which
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Otaviano Canuto: Going Around the Bend? Assessing the Phillips Curve May Be of Help
Unemployment and wage rates are theoretically linked, and may hold a key to our immediate economic future. Current global stagflation may evolve to become a soft landing, a sharp downturn, or a deep recession. It will all depend on how
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Otaviano Canuto: Some Economies May Soon Face a Hard Landing
Weaker performance of emerging markets is expected in the immediate future. This year began with simultaneous signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and a reorientation toward tightening of monetary policies in advanced economies. In its latest Global Economic
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Otaviano Canuto: Are We on the Verge of a New Commodity Super-Cycle?
Commodity prices have recovered their 2020 losses and, in most cases, are now above pre-pandemic levels (Figure 1). The pace of Chinese growth since 2020 and the economic recovery that has accompanied vaccine rollouts are driving demand upward, while supply
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Otaviano Canuto: Middle-Income Countries Should Not Be Rushed to ‘Graduate’ Status
Many donor countries seem eager to see middle-income countries (MICs) graduate to non-client status in multilateral development institutions before achieving their full development potential. Such institutions can significantly contribute to the sustainable development of MICs, while seizing many benefits from
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Otaviano Canuto: Central Banks and Inequality
While the economic recovery around the world remains uneven, fragile, and unbalanced across sectors, financial markets are generally doing very well, thanks! In the United States, only half of the unemployment caused by the pandemic last year has been reversed,
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Otaviano Canuto: Dependency and Disconnect of U.S. Financial Markets
U.S. stock and corporate bond markets performed extraordinarily well from the March financial shock caused by covid-19 to the end of last month. Then, three consecutive weeks of decline in the three major stock market indexes have been followed this
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Otaviano Canuto: Brazil, South Korea – Two Tales of Climbing an Income Ladder
The “middle-income trap” has captured many developing countries: they succeeded in evolving from low per capita income levels, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income levels of advanced economies (Gill & Kharas, 2007,
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Otaviano Canuto: Economic Recovery From the Pandemic May Come to Resemble a Square Root
Signs of recovery in various parts of the global economy started in May, after the depressive dip imposed by Covid-19. They emerged after the easing of restrictions on mobility and reflected policies of flattening the recession curve (income transfers to
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Otaviano Canuto on Central Banks and Climate Change: Turning Black Swans Into Green
There are three possible motivations for the engagement by central banks with climate change: financial risks, macro-economic impacts, and mitigation/adaptation policies. Regardless of the extent to which individual central banks incorporate the three prongs of motivations, they can no longer
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