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Otaviano Canuto on Central Banks and Climate Change: Turning Black Swans Into Green

There are three possible motivations for the engagement by central banks with climate change: financial risks, macro-economic impacts, and mitigation/adaptation policies. Regardless of the extent to which individual central banks incorporate the three prongs of motivations, they can no longer

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Otaviano Canuto: Shapes of the Post-Coronavirus Economic Recovery

Data recently released on the first-quarter global domestic product (GDP) performance of major economies have showed how significant the impact of COVID-19 has been on economic activity and jobs, with large contractions across the board. The ongoing global recession is

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Otaviano Canuto: Channels of Transmission of Coronavirus to Developing Economies from Abroad

In a previous article, we highlighted how developing economies have faced simultaneous shocks from their external environment, as pandemic and recession curves have unfolded abroad (Canuto, 2020a). In addition to financial shocks, there have been declines in remittances, tourism receipts, and commodity

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Otaviano Canuto: More Than One Coronavirus Curve to Manage – Infection, Recession and External Finance

Flattening Coronavirus Curves – Otaviano Canuto First appeared at the Policy Center for the New South The global reach of COVID-19 is now clear. In a short time, country after country has suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each

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Otaviano Canuto, Center for Macroeconomics and Development: Is There a Middle-Income Trap?

The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low- to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward

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Otaviano Canuto, Center for Macroeconomics and Development: China’s Rebalancing Act is Slowly Addressing Sliding Growth Figures

China’s economic growth has been sliding since 2011, while its economic structure has gradually rebalanced toward lower dependence on investments and current-account surpluses. Steadiness in that trajectory has been accompanied by rising levels of domestic private debt, as well as

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Otaviano Canuto, Center for Macroeconomics and Development: How to Heal the Brazilian Economy

If I were to encapsulate the current situation of the Brazilian economy in one sentence, I would say: “It is suffering from a combination of ‘productivity anemia’ and ‘public sector obesity’”. On the one hand, the country’s mediocre productivity performance

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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Making Returns on Knowledge – How Innovation Can Flow from Globalisation

The April issue of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) included a chapter on how globalisation has helped technology leaders’ knowledge spread faster. Cross-border technological diffusion has not only contributed to rising domestic productivity levels in advanced and

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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Can Services Replace Manufacturing as an Engine for Development?

Manufacturing expansion has been a vehicle for job creation, productivity increases, and growth in non-advanced economies since the second half of the last century. First in Latin America, followed by Asia, and a renewal of production systems in Eastern Europe,

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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Overlapping Globalisations

Current technological developments in manufacturing are likely to lead to a partial reversal of the wave of fragmentation and global value chains that was at the core of the rise of North-South trade from 1990 onward. At the same time,

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