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Otaviano Canuto: Economic Recovery From the Pandemic May Come to Resemble a Square Root
Signs of recovery in various parts of the global economy started in May, after the depressive dip imposed by Covid-19. They emerged after the easing of restrictions on mobility and reflected policies of flattening the recession curve (income transfers to
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Otaviano Canuto on Central Banks and Climate Change: Turning Black Swans Into Green
There are three possible motivations for the engagement by central banks with climate change: financial risks, macro-economic impacts, and mitigation/adaptation policies. Regardless of the extent to which individual central banks incorporate the three prongs of motivations, they can no longer
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Otaviano Canuto: Shapes of the Post-Coronavirus Economic Recovery
Data recently released on the first-quarter global domestic product (GDP) performance of major economies have showed how significant the impact of COVID-19 has been on economic activity and jobs, with large contractions across the board. The ongoing global recession is
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Otaviano Canuto: Channels of Transmission of Coronavirus to Developing Economies from Abroad
In a previous article, we highlighted how developing economies have faced simultaneous shocks from their external environment, as pandemic and recession curves have unfolded abroad (Canuto, 2020a). In addition to financial shocks, there have been declines in remittances, tourism receipts, and commodity
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Otaviano Canuto: More Than One Coronavirus Curve to Manage – Infection, Recession and External Finance
Flattening Coronavirus Curves – Otaviano Canuto First appeared at the Policy Center for the New South The global reach of COVID-19 is now clear. In a short time, country after country has suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each
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Otaviano Canuto, Center for Macroeconomics and Development: Is There a Middle-Income Trap?
The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low- to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward
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Otaviano Canuto, Center for Macroeconomics and Development: China’s Rebalancing Act is Slowly Addressing Sliding Growth Figures
China’s economic growth has been sliding since 2011, while its economic structure has gradually rebalanced toward lower dependence on investments and current-account surpluses. Steadiness in that trajectory has been accompanied by rising levels of domestic private debt, as well as
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Otaviano Canuto, Center for Macroeconomics and Development: How to Heal the Brazilian Economy
If I were to encapsulate the current situation of the Brazilian economy in one sentence, I would say: “It is suffering from a combination of ‘productivity anemia’ and ‘public sector obesity’”. On the one hand, the country’s mediocre productivity performance
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Making Returns on Knowledge – How Innovation Can Flow from Globalisation
The April issue of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) included a chapter on how globalisation has helped technology leaders’ knowledge spread faster. Cross-border technological diffusion has not only contributed to rising domestic productivity levels in advanced and
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Can Services Replace Manufacturing as an Engine for Development?
Manufacturing expansion has been a vehicle for job creation, productivity increases, and growth in non-advanced economies since the second half of the last century. First in Latin America, followed by Asia, and a renewal of production systems in Eastern Europe,
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