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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Can Services Replace Manufacturing as an Engine for Development?

Manufacturing expansion has been a vehicle for job creation, productivity increases, and growth in non-advanced economies since the second half of the last century. First in Latin America, followed by Asia, and a renewal of production systems in Eastern Europe,

Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Overlapping Globalisations

Current technological developments in manufacturing are likely to lead to a partial reversal of the wave of fragmentation and global value chains that was at the core of the rise of North-South trade from 1990 onward. At the same time,

Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: The Metamorphosis of Financial Globalisation

After a strong rising tide starting in the 1990s, financial globalisation seems to have reached a plateau since the global financial crisis. However, that apparent stability has taken place along a deep reshaping of cross-border financial flows, featuring de-banking and

Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Matchmaking Finance and Infrastructure

The world economy – and emerging market and developing economies in particular – display a gap between their infrastructure needs and the available finance. On the one hand, infrastructure investment has fallen far short from of what would be required

Otaviano Canuto & Matheus Cavallari, World Bank: Bloated Central Bank Balance Sheets

Central banks of large advanced and many emerging market economies have recently gone through a period of extraordinary expansion of their balance sheets and are all now possibly facing a transition to less abnormal times. However, the fact that one

Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: Global Imbalances on the Rise

Discussions around large current account imbalances among systemically relevant economies as a direct threat to the stability of the global economy vanished in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. As the crisis originated in the US financial system –

Otaviano Canuto, World Bank: What’s Ailing the Brazilian Economy?

Brazil’s GDP is poised to decline by close to 7% in 2015-2016. Per capita GDP in 2016 is likely to shrink by more than 10% as compared to three years ago. We argue here that a double malaise has been

Otaviano Canuto, IMF: China’s Spill-Overs on Latin America and the Caribbean

The Chinese economy is rebalancing while softening its growth pace. China’s spillovers on the global economy have operated through trade, commodity prices, and financial channels. The global reach of the effects from China’s transition have recently been illustrated in risk

Otaviano Canuto, IMF: What Happened to World Trade?

World trade suffered another disappointing year in 2015, experiencing a contraction in merchandise trade volumes during the first half and only a low recovery during the second half (Figure 1). While last year’s trade performance can be associated to the

Otaviano Canuto, IMF: Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves

After a exponential rise in foreign exchange reserves accumulation by emerging markets from 2000 onwards, the tide seems to have turned south since mid-2014. Changes in capital flows and commodity prices have been major factors behind the inflection, with the

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