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Otaviano Canuto, IMF: China’s Spill-Overs on Latin America and the Caribbean
The Chinese economy is rebalancing while softening its growth pace. China’s spillovers on the global economy have operated through trade, commodity prices, and financial channels. The global reach of the effects from China’s transition have recently been illustrated in risk
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Otaviano Canuto, IMF: What Happened to World Trade?
World trade suffered another disappointing year in 2015, experiencing a contraction in merchandise trade volumes during the first half and only a low recovery during the second half (Figure 1). While last year’s trade performance can be associated to the
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Otaviano Canuto, IMF: Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves
After a exponential rise in foreign exchange reserves accumulation by emerging markets from 2000 onwards, the tide seems to have turned south since mid-2014. Changes in capital flows and commodity prices have been major factors behind the inflection, with the
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Otaviano Canuto, IMF: Trade Opening Could Be a Source of Growth for Brazil
International trade has undergone a radical transformation in the past decades as production processes have fragmented along cross-border value chains. The Brazilian economy has remained on the fringes of this production revolution, maintaining a very high density of local supply
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Otaviano Canuto, IMF: How Commodity-Dependent Are Latin American Economies?
The end of the upswing phase of the commodity price super-cycle, after its peak in 2011, has lowered economic growth prospects in most of Latin America. While that broad statement can hardly be disputed, Chapter 3 of the latest IMF
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank Group: BRICS Apart as Oil Prices Plunge
The oil price plunge since last June has been deemed, overall, as a boon for the global economy. However, that depends on where one stands as a producer or user, as illustrated here with the divergence of impacts on BRICS
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank Group: Navigating Brazil’s Path to Growth
Brazil’s macroeconomic management faces four major immediate challenges. The response to them will be strengthened if economic agents could have some indication of how the Brazilian economy will be steered back to a growth route. The first challenge will be
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank Group: Liquidity Glut, Infrastructure Finance Drought and Development Banks
The world economy faces huge infrastructure financing needs that are not being matched on the supply side. Emerging market economies, in particular, have had to deal with international long-term private debt financing options that are less supportive of infrastructure finance.
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank Group: Commodity Super Cycle to Stick Around a Bit Longer
Some analysts have predicted that the commodity price boom has played itself out. However, natural resource-based commodity prices (with the exception of shale gas and its downward pressure on US natural gas prices) have remained relatively high over the last
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Otaviano Canuto, World Bank Group: Macroeconomics and Stagnation – Keynesian-Schumpeterian Wars
Policy makers in the advanced economies at the core of the global financial crisis can make the claim that they prevented a new “Great Depression”. However, recovery since the outbreak of the crisis more than five years ago has been
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