Author: Otaviano Canuto
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Whither Interest Rates in Advanced Economies: Low for Long?
by Otaviano Canuto We have previously discussed how, between March 2020, when the financial shock caused by COVID-19 occurred, and the end of August, the stock and corporate debt markets in the United States performed extraordinarily, despite gloomy prospects on
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China on the Way Back to Rebalancing
China’s economy keeps recovering from the coronavirus pandemic-led crisis through the third quarter of 2020, as revealed by the numbers of August activity. Its GDP grew by 3.2% in the second quarter, after falling by 6.8% in the first quarter,
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Otaviano Canuto: Dependency and Disconnect of U.S. Financial Markets
U.S. stock and corporate bond markets performed extraordinarily well from the March financial shock caused by covid-19 to the end of last month. Then, three consecutive weeks of decline in the three major stock market indexes have been followed this
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Otaviano Canuto: Brazil, South Korea – Two Tales of Climbing an Income Ladder
The “middle-income trap” has captured many developing countries: they succeeded in evolving from low per capita income levels, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income levels of advanced economies (Gill & Kharas, 2007,
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Otaviano Canuto: Economic Recovery From the Pandemic May Come to Resemble a Square Root
Signs of recovery in various parts of the global economy started in May, after the depressive dip imposed by Covid-19. They emerged after the easing of restrictions on mobility and reflected policies of flattening the recession curve (income transfers to
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Brazil’s Economic Crossroads: Which Path Will It Choose?
Latin America’s largest economy entered the pandemic before it could heal from its worst recession in decades. First appeared at Americas Quarterly By Otaviano Canuto As the pandemic unfolds, Brazil is paying a huge human cost, with the number of
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Otaviano Canuto on Central Banks and Climate Change: Turning Black Swans Into Green
There are three possible motivations for the engagement by central banks with climate change: financial risks, macro-economic impacts, and mitigation/adaptation policies. Regardless of the extent to which individual central banks incorporate the three prongs of motivations, they can no longer
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Otaviano Canuto: Shapes of the Post-Coronavirus Economic Recovery
Data recently released on the first-quarter global domestic product (GDP) performance of major economies have showed how significant the impact of COVID-19 has been on economic activity and jobs, with large contractions across the board. The ongoing global recession is
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Otaviano Canuto: Channels of Transmission of Coronavirus to Developing Economies from Abroad
In a previous article, we highlighted how developing economies have faced simultaneous shocks from their external environment, as pandemic and recession curves have unfolded abroad (Canuto, 2020a). In addition to financial shocks, there have been declines in remittances, tourism receipts, and commodity
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Otaviano Canuto: More Than One Coronavirus Curve to Manage – Infection, Recession and External Finance
Flattening Coronavirus Curves – Otaviano Canuto First appeared at the Policy Center for the New South The global reach of COVID-19 is now clear. In a short time, country after country has suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each
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