Russian Gas Transit to Europe Discontinued Following Lapse of Ukrainian Agreement

Ukraine has terminated a longstanding transit arrangement that, even amid an active conflict with Moscow since 2022, allowed Russian oil and gas to continue flowing to European markets. By choosing not to renew the deal, Kyiv has cut off a major route for Russian gas exports that dates back around 60 years.

The decision took effect Wednesday, when the contract enabling Russian gas transit through Ukraine expired. In a statement posted to Telegram, Russian energy company Gazprom announced the formal suspension:

“Due to the repeated and explicit refusal of the Ukrainian side to extend these agreements, Gazprom was deprived of the technical and legal ability to supply gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine from January 1, 2025. Since 8:00 Moscow time, Russian gas has not been supplied for its transportation through the territory of Ukraine.”

Despite Russia’s invasion, which has inflicted extensive damage across Ukraine, both countries had continued to benefit financially from transit fees—until now. Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko confirmed the development, stating Wednesday on Telegram:

“This is a historic event. Russia is losing its markets; it will suffer financial losses. Europe has already made the decision to abandon Russian gas.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, posting on X, labeled this disruption:

“one of Moscow’s biggest defeats.”

EU leaders maintain that the region is sufficiently prepared to function without gas supplies passing through Ukraine. Over the past three years, the bloc has steadily scaled back its reliance on Russian gas, cutting total imports significantly. According to data compiled by Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, just 5 percent of Europe’s gas imports came via Ukraine in the first eight months of 2024.

In anticipation of the shutdown, European energy authorities coordinated with countries most dependent on Russian gas, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. A recent European Commission report described the bloc’s gas infrastructure as “resilient and flexible,” noting that all member states now have the capacity to procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) from alternative global sources. It further stated:

“The European Union is well-prepared to face the end of gas transit via Ukraine. The gas ‘transiting via Ukraine can be fully replaced by LNG and non-Russian pipeline imports via alternative routes.’”

For decades, Ukraine served as a primary corridor for Russian gas bound for Europe. However, the launch of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in 2011, and the later completion of Nord Stream 2 (whose certification was halted by Germany in early 2022), reduced that role considerably.

Under a 2019 transit deal, Russia was obligated to move a minimum annual volume of 40 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine’s pipeline system or compensate Kyiv financially. Even after the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Kyiv had continued to honor that contract, arguing it was important to maintain credibility with European partners.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian officials have consistently urged European allies to eliminate gas imports from Russia, seeing them as a critical source of funding for the Kremlin’s military operations. The Nord Stream pipeline system, in Ukrainian eyes, offered Russia the ability to bypass Ukrainian territory altogether, which would have eroded Kyiv’s geopolitical leverage and revenue from transit fees.

The shutdown has already produced consequences for some of Russia’s nearer customers. On Wednesday, authorities in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, announced a cessation of heating and hot water, linking the measure to Gazprom’s suspension of gas deliveries via Ukraine. Gazprom had previously warned it would halt these supplies over alleged unpaid debts.

Meanwhile, tensions are high between Ukraine and some of its regional neighbors. In late December, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico traveled to Moscow for discussions with President Vladimir Putin regarding potential gas deliveries. Soon after, Zelensky criticised Fico’s position, arguing that prolonging dependence on Russian gas presented a major security risk to Europe. Fico countered by threatening possible reciprocal measures, including curtailing emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine.

Regardless of these diplomatic maneuvers, the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine has now ended. Victoria Voytsitska, a prominent civil society leader and former Ukrainian parliamentarian who advocated for closing the transit route, wrote on Facebook:

“The Russian gas monster is in convulsions. … This gas has been an instrument of the Kremlin’s economic and political influence on Europe for decades. For the past 10 years, it has provided the most liquid channel for financing the Russian military machine.”

With the agreement officially concluded, industry observers will be closely watching how this development reshapes energy markets, impacts regional revenues, and potentially escalates geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.