Asian Development Bank on The Cost of Inaction: How Climate Change Threatens Asia and the Pacific

Without decisive and sustained action, Asia and the Pacific face unprecedented warming, extreme weather, and economic devastation. Rising temperatures, intensifying storms, and severe flooding are just a glimpse of what’s to come if urgent measures are not taken.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it is already reshaping the world. Even if all greenhouse gas emissions ceased today, the effects would continue to intensify. This is because global warming is driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, not just current emissions. The challenge is twofold: while long-term mitigation remains essential, adaptation is now critical to managing the damage that is already unfolding.

A Climate on the Brink

As of mid-2024, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels had reached 422 parts per million (ppm)—a staggering 50% increase from the preindustrial level of 280 ppm. Two-thirds of this rise has occurred since 1970, with the rate of increase accelerating over time. The last time CO2 levels were this high, millions of years ago, Earth was a vastly different planet.

Since the mid-18th century, human activities have pumped 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. To meet the Paris Agreement targets, future emissions must be a fraction of current levels, despite record global population and economic growth. Yet, the world is moving in the wrong direction.

By 2023, global temperatures were already 1.46°C above preindustrial levels, with the World Meteorological Organization confirming that the 1.5°C threshold has now been breached. The pace of warming is also accelerating—since 1982, the rate of temperature increase has tripled. The last 10 years (2014–2023) were the hottest on record, and February 2024 was the warmest month ever recorded.

Tipping Points and Cascading Risks

The impacts of climate change depend on whether global warming is kept within the Paris Agreement target of well below 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, even with aggressive action, further warming is inevitable. Under current policies, global temperatures could rise by 3°C by 2100, with additional feedback loops—such as thawing permafrost and warming oceans—potentially pushing temperatures even higher.

Ecosystems that once absorbed carbon are becoming emitters. Tropical forests and peatlands, once major carbon sinks, are now releasing more CO2 due to wildfires, deforestation, and human activities. In 2023, the world saw a substantial slowdown in natural carbon sequestration, raising fears that ecosystems will soon accelerate climate change rather than mitigate it.

If warming surpasses 4.7°C, some regions could become nearly uninhabitable. Southeast Asia, which historically experienced fewer than 20 days per year above 35°C, could see over 180 extreme heat days annually by 2100. South Asia would see over 200 extreme heat days, while parts of East Asia and Central and West Asia would experience nearly 50 days above this threshold. The consequences would be severe—labor productivity in high-exposure sectors could plummet by up to 30%, and energy demand for cooling would skyrocket.

A Future of Intensifying Storms, Floods, and Rising Seas

Climate change is already amplifying storm intensity across Asia and the Pacific. Between 1979 and 2016, cyclones in East and Southeast Asia increased in duration by two hours after landfall and traveled 100 kilometers further inland. Under a high-emissions scenario, the destructive power of cyclones could double by 2100, far outpacing global averages.

Meanwhile, sea levels are rising at an alarming rate. By 2100, global sea levels could rise by 0.8 meters, but parts of Asia and the Pacific are seeing rates of relative sea-level rise twice the global average. Compounding this risk is the growing instability of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, which could accelerate sea-level rise even further.

With over 300 million people in Asia and the Pacific living in low-lying coastal areas, the stakes are enormous. Under high-end warming scenarios, entire cities and economic hubs could be swallowed by rising seas. The cost of inaction will be catastrophic: by 2070, trillions of dollars in capital damage could be incurred annually due to sea-level rise, storm surges, and coastal flooding. The hardest-hit populations will be in China, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, where affected communities could triple by 2050, surpassing 50 million people annually by 2070.

The devastation will not be confined to coastlines. Intensified rainfall and extreme storms will cause massive inland flooding and landslides, displacing millions. By 2070, 110 million people per year could be affected by riverine flooding alone, with annual damages reaching into the trillions.

A Blow to Agriculture, Fisheries, and Livelihoods

The impact on agriculture, fisheries, and forestry will disproportionately harm poor and vulnerable communities. The majority of low-income populations in Asia and the Pacific rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, and food constitutes the largest share of their household consumption. As climate disruptions grow more severe, food security will deteriorate, worsening hunger and poverty.

Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of droughts and floods will make farming more unpredictable, reducing crop yields and pushing up food prices. This will exacerbate economic inequality, disproportionately harming those who are least equipped to cope.

The Economic Cost of Climate Change

The financial toll of climate change on Asia and the Pacific will be staggering. Under a high-emissions scenario, the region could lose 17% of its GDP by 2070, compared to a 2020 baseline. The most vulnerable countries could suffer losses of up to 30% of their economies. By 2100, the economic damage could be even greater, with GDP losses reaching 41% regionally and some nations losing up to 78% of their GDP.

These projections account for well-understood risks, but unknown threats loom large. Disruptions to ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and climatic instability could push losses far beyond current estimates. The harsh reality is that climate change is already transforming the world in drastic and irreversible ways.

The Price of Doing Nothing

Ignoring this crisis not only accelerates warming but also deepens the vulnerability of billions of people—particularly in Asia and the Pacific, where rising seas, intensified storms, and food insecurity threaten to devastate entire economies.

The choice is clear: either take decisive action now or face an unmanageable future. Every year of delay worsens the consequences, making adaptation costlier and the damage more severe. The time for half-measures is over—inaction is not an option.

 

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asian Development Bank, its management, its Board of Directors, or its members.