by CFI | July 30, 2012 4:47 pm
The dilemma is how to unwind the high debt levels and losses in competitiveness accumulated and do this in the middle of recessions that are beginning to strain some societies to the breaking point, and in light of the overwhelming size, power, and scepticism of financial markets.
ICEC suggest the answer must involve a combination of extraordinary measures, which include institutional and fiscal-structural reforms aimed at minimising the immediate output cost of real exchange rate and fiscal adjustment, support from existing funds (the EFSF and ESM), additional support from surplus countries, voluntary debt restructuring, an exceptional role for the ECB, and exceptional emergency macroeconomic and monetary policy measures.
A recent report “Breaking the Deadlock: A Path Out of the Crisis” summarizes:
It is still possible – economically and politically – to find a way out of the euro zone crisis if policy makers separately address two problems: dealing with the legacy costs of the initially flawed design of the euro zone, and fixing the design itself. The former requires significant burden sharing and an economic strategy that focuses on stabilising the countries that are suffering from recession and capital flight. In contrast, fixing the design requires a financial (banking) union with strong euro-area institutions and a minimal fiscal backstop.
The key findings by ICEC (from NR):
The report begins:
We (ICEC) believe that as of July 2012 Europe is sleepwalking toward a disaster of incalculable proportions. Over the last few weeks, the situation in the debtor countries has deteriorated dramatically. The sense of a never-ending crisis, with one domino falling after another, must be reversed. The last domino, Spain, is days away from a liquidity crisis, according to its own finance minister. This dramatic situation is the result of a euro zone system, which as it is currently constructed, is thoroughly broken. The cause is a systemic failure that exacerbated a boom in capital flows and credit and complicated its aftermath after the boom turned to bust. It is the responsibility of all European nations that were parties to its flawed design, construction, and implementation to contribute to a solution.
Deepening recessions and high unemployment are tearing at the social fabric in the deficit countries and causing enormous and avoidable human suffering
ICEC goes on:
Deepening recessions and high unemployment are tearing at the social fabric in the deficit countries and causing enormous and avoidable human suffering. Alleviating this suffering should be the first priority of euro zone policymakers.
ICEC identifies a downward economic spiral in the deficit countries also to be labelled as “deficit countries”, “debtor countries”, “crisis countries” or “south” to refer primarily to Italy and Spain. Ireland, Portugal, Greece, and Cyprus could also be considered to be in this group, but their situation is somewhat different because they are in IMF-EU supported adjustment programmes. ICEC avoid the “centre” versus “periphery” terminology that has become engrained in the last year because a country such as Italy is too central to Europe – geographically, economically, and historically – to be considered part of the “periphery”.
The deficit countries are experiencing a self fulfilling fiscal crisis as the deficiency of aggregate demand at present leaves many resources unnecessarily idle, and narrows the tax base at a time of fiscal stress.
Stabilising output and employment in the recession-struck deficit countries is impossible without delaying some of the on-going fiscal adjustment and channelling more support to the deficit countries.
Policy makers in the surplus countries (“Surplus countries”, “creditor countries”, or “north” interchangeably refer to countries such as Austria, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and the Slovak Republic) must make an effort to convince their voters that significant burden-sharing is necessary to stop the crisis, because deficit countries will otherwise remain stuck in a spiral where fiscal adjustment depresses output in the short run, making it harder for the private sector to repay its debts, putting pressure on asset prices and asset quality of banks, constraining credit, and further depressing output and revenue, which undermines fiscal adjustment. This leads to a breakup of the euro zone, which imposes largely avoidable but very high economic and other costs on both surplus and deficit countries.
ICEC have many specific recommendations for fixing the euro even without further political integration, without full fiscal union, without euro zone bonds and only limited mutualisation (Really? Is that possible? Wauw!). The recommendations have no common liability in any of the long-term proposals beyond those necessary to establish and backstop the banking union and the ESM, and both are subject to strict safeguards.
The diabolical loop between banks and sovereigns is dragging both down as each rescues the other.
Some of these interrelated recommendations to structurally fix the euro and to put the euro zone on a firm footing include:
Some of the urgent short run measures include:
A minority of Council members believe that avoiding future crises requires changing the statute of the ECB toward a dual mandate that includes output and employment objectives, and that the price stability objective should be revised to also target nominal GDP growth.
Source: The Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
About ICEC and INET: This article is from a new report “Breaking the Deadlock: A Path Out of the Crisis” from July 23, 2012. The Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) has sponsored the formation of the INET Council on the Euro Zone Crisis (ICEC) that is comprised of 17 leading European economists. The group held its first meeting on June 26-27 in Brussels (which included George Soros and Adam Posen) and a nonstop virtual meeting has taken place since then. As the pressures toward disintegration of the euro increase and the deep social unrest in Spain, Italy, and other countries erupts, the INET Council of the Euro zone members felt compelled to issue a brief report that creates a vision of how the euro zone could be repaired and redesigned at this desperate juncture. The signatures include:
Global Chief Economist , NATIXIS – Banque de Financement et d’Investissement
Chief Economist and Special Adviser to the President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Professor, Universität Würzburg
Professor, University of Cambridge
Professor of Economics and Strategy, London School of Economics
Paul De Grauwe
Professor, London School of Economics and Political Science
Guillermo de la Dehesa
Chairman, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Professor for Economic Policy, University of Freiburg
Professor Emeritus, Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris
Director, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Professor of Economic History, University of Oxford
Professor of Economics, London Business School
Professor of Economics, London Business School
Senior Fellow, Bruegel
President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
ICREA Research Professor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
Professor of Economics, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz
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