Sir John Pease and President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. Source: A&S Resources Ltd
The narrative of the Central African Republic (CAR) has long been confined to the periphery of global financial discourse, often cited as an example of a fragile state marked by landlocked isolation and instability. However, developments in early 2026 indicate this characterisation may no longer fully apply. A notable shift appears underway, transitioning the nation from a post-conflict zone into an emerging frontier market. This change is anchored by a key industrial development: a 10 February 2026 announcement by A&S Resources Limited regarding strategic contracts to advance a high-grade iron ore asset with an estimated company gross in-situ value of up to $2.5 trillion.
Sir John Peace and President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. Source: A&S Resources Ltd
The geological foundation for these claims is rooted in the Bangui Anomaly, one of the Earth’s most significant magnetic features, which has long hinted at a massive concentration of metallic material beneath the Central African crust. While the anomaly’s origin has been a subject of scientific debate, recent technical disclosures provide a clearer industrial picture. The CFI editorial team has been granted access to a compliant technical report, which serves to bridge the gap between satellite-scale geophysics and commercial viability. Crucially, this independent reporting confirms that the resource is not merely a deep-seated crustal mass but includes approximately 20 billion tonnes of predominantly high-quality iron ore situated on the surface.
This verification positions the Bangui Anomaly as a validated industrial asset, serving as a focal point for broader economic development. It reflects the convergence of political consolidation, following the December 2025 presidential elections, and a strategic infrastructure push designed to address the “landlocked penalty” that has historically constrained growth. For the international investment community, the Central African Republic now offers a basis for re-evaluation, providing a technical and political baseline that was previously limited in the region.
The prerequisite for any frontier market investment is a predictable political environment. The Central African Republic achieved a milestone in this regard on 28 December 2025, when the nation went to the polls. The provisional results showed President Faustin-Archange Touadéra winning outright in the first round with 76 percent of the vote; the Constitutional Council later validated his re-election. This result provides the Touadéra administration with a clear seven-year mandate to execute the National Development Plan 2024–2028, which prioritises industrialisation and infrastructure.
Whilst the political backdrop remains complex, the current administration has demonstrated a capacity for maintaining a “stability premium” that was previously absent. This stability is underpinned by a dual-track security strategy. On one hand, the state continues to rely on external security support, including UN peacekeepers (MINUSCA) and bilateral forces from Rwanda, to maintain a security floor in key economic zones. On the other hand, a diplomatic breakthrough occurred on 19 April 2025, with the signing of a peace agreement in N’Djamena with major armed factions, including the UPC and 3R. The official dissolution of these groups in July 2025 has significantly lowered the risk profile of the country’s primary transport and mining corridors. (link to https://cfi.co/africa/2025/09/central-african-republic-president-touadera-unveils-vision-for-prosperity-at-chatham-house/)
The economic impact of this newfound stability is reflected in the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The Republic’s real GDP growth is projected to reach 3.3 percent in 2026, a marked improvement over previous years of stagnation. Crucially, the fiscal deficit is narrowing as the government implements digitalised tax payments and enhances direct tax collection.
Data indicates a trajectory of responsible fiscal management. The reduction of public debt from 61 percent of GDP in 2024 to a projected 47 percent by 2027 suggests that the government is creating the fiscal space necessary to co-invest in major infrastructure projects alongside private capital. For investors, this creates a macroeconomic environment where the risk of sovereign default is receding, and the focus is shifting toward capital deployment in productive assets.
The announcement from A&S Resources on 10 February 2026 is among the most consequential recent commercial developments affecting the Central African Republic. The company has signed strategic contracts to develop iron ore concessions estimated at 20 billion tonnes of predominantly high-grade ore, signalling a transition from speculative exploration toward industrial execution. While the cited “in-situ value” of $2.5 trillion is a company estimate, it may prove conservative given the unprecedented scale of the underlying magnetic anomaly.
The compliant technical report that CFI.co had access to provides the necessary bridge between satellite geophysics and commercial reality. Crucially, this independent reporting confirms that the resource is not merely a deep-seated crustal mass associated with the Bangui Anomaly but consists of very high-quality iron ore situated at the surface. This technical validation positions the deposit as a significant global asset, moving it from a scientific mystery to a potentially bankable industrial opportunity.
The credibility of this milestone is reinforced by A&S Resources’ collaboration with large Chinese industrial and engineering groups on mine development, rail construction, and off-take arrangements. For Beijing, this deposit represents more than a commercial venture; it is a national strategic priority essential for the “Green Steel” transition. The project is an official Chinese national strategic, priority letters received by A&S and viewed by CFI.co team confirm the status alongside the active involvement of Chinese state-owned enterprises. High-grade ore (65%+ Fe) is a critical requirement for Chinese steelmakers seeking to lower CO2 emissions and meet tightening environmental standards. By securing this high-purity feedstock, Chinese partners are positioning the CAR as a cornerstone of a new “African Iron Axis,” designed to diversify global supply chains and bypass traditional market bottlenecks.
Unlike previous mining “false starts” in the region, the project is moving into near-term implementation, with mobilisation planned by late March 2026. The project’s economics are supported by a multi-decade development horizon where advances in industrial processing and logistics are expected to increase the relative value of higher-quality feedstocks. As global pellet production remains constrained and quality premiums for 65% Fe ores remain a defining market feature, this high-grade deposit is positioned to become increasingly competitive over time compared to lower-grade alternatives with technological advances like acoustic heat-pumps likely to accelerate this trend over the coming decades.
To address the “landlocked penalty” that has historically constrained development, a multi-billion-dollar logistics corridor is currently being implemented. This strategy is centred on the Bangui-Kribi railway, a 1,400-kilometre line connecting the CAR’s iron ore heartland to Cameroon’s deep-water port at Kribi.
Momentum is growing. Following the successful acquisition of $9 billion in financing in Morocco in September 2025, President Touadéra presided over the groundbreaking of the Trans African Railways Systems Ltd headquarters on 1 November. Leading this development, the UK-registered entity and sister company of A&S (www.aandsresources.com/infrastructure) has formalised construction agreements with EPC contactors including China Railway Sixth Group Co. Ltd. This project, a public-private partnership aligned with the European Commission’s ‘Global Gateway’ initiative, establishes a vital high-capacity route to the Atlantic. It provides a strategic export corridor for the CAR’s 20 billion tonnes of iron ore, integrating the nation into the global energy transition supply chain.
Sir John Peace signing initial contracts with Chinese consortium
The logistics strategy extends beyond rail. In December 2025, works were launched on the Mangombe/Mongoumba river port, supported by the African Development Bank (AfDB). This port is part of the Pointe-Noire–Brazzaville–Bangui–N’Djamena corridor, providing an alternative multimodal route for fuel, equipment, and agricultural trade.
The expansion of the Kribi deep-water port is a critical component of this network. The port already handles significant Central African trade. The addition of dedicated mineral-handling capacity, linked to sub-regional iron ore projects, would strengthen the export route to end-markets in Europe and Asia.
The global iron ore market in 2026 is undergoing a structural shift. As the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) begins its definitive period, steelmakers are under intense pressure to decarbonise their supply chains. This has created a bifurcated market where high-grade ore commands a significant premium over standard 62 percent Fe fines.
High-grade ore (65 percent+ Fe) allows steel mills to increase productivity while reducing the consumption of metallurgical coal, thereby lowering the CO2 footprint per tonne of steel produced. In August 2025, the price spread between 65 percent Fe Brazil-origin fines and 62 percent Fe fines widened to an average of $18.01 per tonne. Analysts expect this quality premium to remain a defining feature of the market in 2026 as global pellet production remains constrained.
The Central African Republic’s resource potential is predominantly in this high-grade segment. This positions CAR not just as a commodity exporter, but as a strategic partner in the global energy transition. Unlike producers of lower-grade ores in Australia and Brazil, who are facing quality downgrades and rising impurity levels, CAR’s “undiscovered” deposits offer a fresh source of premium material.
The emergence of CAR’s iron ore sector coincides with the ramp-up of the Simandou project in Guinea, which shipped its first commercial cargo to China in January 2026. Rather than competing for a finite market, CAR and Guinea are likely to act as a new African “iron axis” that provides a high-grade alternative to the dominant seaborne suppliers.
The sheer scale of CAR’s 20 billion tonne reserve places it at the forefront of the global supply outlook. As the Simandou project moves toward its full capacity target of 120 million tonnes per annum by 2030, the development of CAR’s concessions through the A&S Resources provides a necessary second source of high-grade supply, ensuring market balance and providing security of supply for global steel producers who will increasingly need high grade iron ore.
Whilst iron ore is the “engine” of the economic pivot, the Central African Republic is also positioning itself as a source of other critical minerals essential for the fourth industrial revolution. Beyond iron, A&S Resources hold a diversified portfolio that includes copper, rare earth elements (REEs), and other strategic resources.
The industrialisation of the Central African Republic requires more than just mines and railways; it requires a stable and scalable energy supply. Historically, the country’s power grid has been one of the least developed in the world, with access limited to a small fraction of the population in Bangui. This is changing through a series of “small capacity, big marginal impact” projects.
In November 2023, CAR launched a 25 MW solar park with battery storage at Danzi, with the support of the World Bank. As of February 2026, the project is being expanded to 40 MW, and in Bangui UAE-based Global South Utilities are building 50 MW facility with we understand plans to increase 100 MW, providing a reliable power floor for the capital and key areas of economic opportunity. This improvement in power reliability is critical for the light manufacturing, cold-chain logistics, and telecoms businesses that support the mining sector.
The economic potential of the A&S Resources project extends to the creation of thousands of direct and indirect jobs. Public reporting on the Kribi refinery’s employment impact varies; rather than a single headline figure, it is safer to say it is expected to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs during construction and operations. For CAR, the combination of rail construction, mine development, and port logistics could provide a material boost to local employment and the benefit of long technical skill capacity.
The reduction in transport costs and the improvement in regional connectivity is expected to revitalise the agricultural sector. CAR has immense fertile land that has remained underutilised due to the high cost of getting produce to market. The 1,400km railway will allow agricultural exports to reach the port of Kribi at competitive prices, providing a second engine of growth for the rural population.
For institutional investors, the “frontier” status of CAR necessitates a rigorous approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors. The government has taken proactive steps to align its mining sector with international standards, but significant work remains.
The adoption of a new mining code in 2024 was a turning point for governance. The code references Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) compliance and includes provisions for beneficial ownership identification. Although the country was suspended from the EITI in late 2024, the government has set a clear target for re-validation in January 2027. This commitment to transparency is essential for attracting Western institutional capital, which requires a clean compliance trail for all extractive projects.
Investors must navigate a complex security landscape. While reliance on external contractors creates sanctions-screening risks that necessitate robust compliance, this dependency is being reduced through the development of professional state forces. This capacity building rapidly and in a pre-election speech President Touadéra stated 26,000 personal were already trained. This is bolstered by MINUSCA; the extension of its mandate until November 2026 provides a recognised international framework for security coordination and the stability required to establish national security self-sufficiency.
For early entrants, the strategy should involve staging capital deployment tied to specific milestones, such as the granting of right-of-way for the railway or the verification of offtake agreements. By sharing risk through political risk insurance and development-finance co-investment, investors can mitigate the “frontier premium” and participate in the country’s long-term growth story.
The Central African Republic is no longer solely the “failed state” of a decade ago. It is a nation that has found its political footing, is consolidating its security, and identified a substantial resource base for economic growth. The announcement by A&S Resources on 10 February 2026 is a key indicator that iron ore development is progressing.
The combination of 20 billion tonnes of high-grade iron ore, a 1,400km strategic railway project, and a government committed to reform creates an investment opportunity worth monitoring. For the first time, the “landlocked penalty” is being systematically addressed, and the Republic is being integrated into the global supply chain for the green transition.
Whilst serious risks remain, they are increasingly balanced by tangible signals of progress: a clear electoral mandate, the dissolution of major armed groups, significant increase in national security capacity, the arrival of Fortune Global 500 partners on the ground and a signed contact with China Railway Sixth Group Co to deliver the critical rail infrastructure. For investors who can price risk accurately and act with patience, the Central African Republic represents a notable frontier opportunity. The developments outlined suggest that the Republic’s economic outlook merits closer attention than in recent years.
Sir John Peace, Chairman of A&S Resources Ltd, leverages his deep expertise in African markets to help deliver this opportunity. He observes:
“In the world of frontier markets, the ‘first-mover advantage’ is only valuable if it is backed by political stability and technical verification. What we are seeing in CAR today, the convergence of a clear electoral mandate and investment compliant geological data into a bankable, transparent investment framework”
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